TLDR: The AI search race won’t have a single winner because it’s not replacing search, it’s redefining it. Google retains unmatched scale, data, and monetisation power, while ChatGPT and other LLM-first tools are already winning on experience for complex, conversational queries. User behaviour is becoming hybrid rather than substitutive, and the real tipping point is likely 2028–2030, when AI-first search overtakes traditional search in intent if not volume.
In the world of search, we’ve lived for decades under the rule of a single dominant search engine, Google. But now Large Language Models (LLMs) and AI-powered search assistants like ChatGPT, Perplexity, Bing Chat, and Google’s own Gemini are rewriting the rules of how humans seek information.
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The terrain: Old search vs new AI search
For 25 years, Google Search’s page of blue links was how we found answers. Today, billions of users are experimenting with LLM interfaces that speak in natural language and solve problems, not just point to URLs. Surveys show LLM-powered search traffic is growing fast, capturing meaningful share in sophisticated informational queries.
Yet the legacy engine still dominates raw volume; traditional search queries are still multiples greater than ChatGPT-based search on a global scale. Even so, analysts predict a crossover by 2028–2030, where LLM-first assistants handle a majority of query intentions, especially complex ones. So, we are headed toward a hybrid future, not a sudden annihilation of the old guard.
Google: The leviathan adapting
Google has the edge in infrastructure, billions of query logs, a sprawling ecosystem of services, and unparalleled distribution through Android and Chrome. Recent moves like expanding Google AI Mode (an LLM-powered conversational layer in search) and integrating personal data for context show it’s not static.
Unlike pure LLM startups, Google can subsidise AI search with advertising revenue, which enables rapid experimentation and monetization with lower cost pressure. Its parent company recently hit a $4 trillion market cap, largely on the strength of its AI ambitions.
If classic search + generative AI capabilities converge into a single product, one that answers questions with sources, context, and utility, Google could remain the default starting point for most users.
OpenAI / ChatGPT: The disruptor with momentum
ChatGPT’s growth has been nothing short of meteoric. Now with hundreds of millions of weekly active users and billions of queries per month, ChatGPT has proven that humans love conversational search. It’s also just been announced that OpenAI’s annualisedrevenue crossed $20 billion in 2025, up from $6 billion in 2024.
Unlike Google’s index-plus-AI strategy, OpenAI built a product that talks back, managing multi-step reasoning, context retention, and creative problem solving. For complex research tasks, learners, analysts, or professionals asking deep questions, the model often feels superior in experience.
Where OpenAI stumbles is in infrastructure, it doesn’t own distribution channels like browsers or operating systems, nor does it have a massive ad engine to offset AI hosting costs.OpenAI is also now experimenting with advertising inside ChatGPT. In early 2026 the company began testing ads for free and lower-tier users in the United States, placing clearly labelled sponsored listings alongside AI responses as part of a strategy to broaden revenue beyond subscriptions and help cover high infrastructure expenditures.
Yet, by 2030, analysts project platforms like ChatGPT may, at least in intent, share, or rival or exceed traditional queries globally. And if OpenAI enables persistent memory, tool use, citations, and search engine integration, it could become the default personal research assistant.
The others: Anthropic, Meta, and the rising field
The LLM market isn’t a two-horse race. Anthropic, Meta, xAI, Mistral, DeepSeek, and others are carving their own distinct niches, whether through safety-first models, open-weight ecosystems, or highly efficient reasoning architecture.
China is also aggressively pursuing AI leadership, with national strategies and open-source breakthroughs that could outpace Western players in global adoption, particularly in emerging markets. This means many winners can emerge: some commanding global consumer attention, others dominating industries, languages, or regional markets.
Why AI search will not replace traditional search
One of the big myths perpetuated by simplistic comparisons is that AI search will completely replace old search overnight. Real data says otherwise: many people who use ChatGPT also continue to use Google Search, often in the same session.
AI tools are expanding the information ecosystem, not just stealing clicks. People aren’t abandoning search, they’re exploring new ways to ask and understand.
In other words:
- Traditional search still excels at speed, breadth, freshness, and transactional queries.
- AI search shines in depth, context, explanation, and conversational exploration.
This duality means we’re entering a co-evolution rather than a winner-takes-all war.
The tipping point: 2028–2030
Forecasts across analyst reports converge on a late-decade inflection point when AI first search may overtake classic search in daily usage, especially for complex queries and research tasks.
By 2030:
- A significant fraction of informational search utilities will be normatively LLM-powered.
- Google will be AI-centric in form.
- Tools like ChatGPT or other assistants could be primary entry points for many users.
But Google won’t disappear. Its search engine will be the backplane for AI responses even if it isn’t visible as a page of links.
Conclusion
If you’re looking for a single champion, the answer is simple: AI-augmented search wins. Not just one product or one company, a new search paradigm where conversational answer engines, context-aware reasoning, and hybrid AI + index systems are the norm.
In that evolution:
- Google remains a dominant force by adapting at scale.
- OpenAI continues to innovate the conversational frontier.
- Anthropic, Meta, and global players diversify the ecosystem.
- Users win because search becomes more intuitive, context-rich, and actionable.
The next decade will be about how we define “search” itself. And in that contest? AI wins. Inevitable, messy, and generative. For brands, AI-first search changes where value is won or lost.
Discovery, influence, and conversion are increasingly decided before a user ever clicks. If you’re wondering how your brand shows up when users ask AI , not Google, let’s talk. Get in touch with our team at team@modo25.com.
