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Winners & Losers of Peak 2024: Key Insights from KPMG & Natural Baby Shower

Peak trading season 2024 brought both big wins and tough lessons for retailers. With shifting consumer behaviours, inflationary pressures, and rising digital advertising costs, the difference between success and struggle lay in strategic preparation, smart marketing spend, and customer-centric approaches.

During our latest webinar, Don Williams (Retail Partner at KPMG) and Clifton Vaughan (Founder of Natural Baby Shower) shared valuable insights into what worked, what didn’t, and how retailers can thrive in 2025.

What Defined the Winners of Peak 2024?

Early Planning & Flawless Execution

Black Friday success isn’t about last-minute discounts—it’s the result of months of meticulous planning.

Clifton Vaughan from Natural Baby Shower revealed that their preparations started in May to ensure their promotions, stock, and marketing strategies were fully optimised before the seasonal rush. Retailers that succeeded in Peak 2024 were those who, planned campaigns well in advance (not reacting last minute). Optimised stock levels & supply chains to meet demand and executed promotions with precision—without eroding profit margins.

Lesson: Brands that treated Peak as a year-round strategy, rather than a short-term event, saw stronger results and profitability.

Customer Experience & Value Took Center Stage

Amidst economic uncertainty, consumers became more selective. Retailers who prioritised experience and perceived value won big. Health & beauty and value-based retailers thrived due to their focus on self-care and affordability. Sustainability also played a role, with brands like Natural Baby Shower removing plastic packaging to align with eco-conscious shoppers.

Lesson: Shoppers don’t just buy products—they buy experiences and values. Brands that connected emotionally and provided seamless service saw increased loyalty.

Smarter Discounting & Marketing Spend Efficiency

While some retailers fell into the trap of deep discounts, the smartest brands took a data-driven approach to promotions.

Targeted discounts instead of blanket sales helped retailers retain margins
AI-driven ad spend optimisation ensured marketing budgets were used effectively
Exclusive short-term events for loyal customers helped drive urgency and demand

According to Don Williams (KPMG), many brands over-discounted unnecessarily, not realising that customers might have bought with just 10% off instead of 20%.

Lesson: Retailers who used precision pricing and personalised promotions outperformed those who relied on generic discounting strategies.

Who Struggled During Peak 2024?

Retailers Who Didn’t Adapt to Inflation & Spending Shifts

KPMG’s data revealed that any retailer reporting less than 3% growth wasn’t even keeping up with inflation. Consumers remained cautious, shifting spending towards essentials and cutting back on non-discretionary purchases. Retailers that failed to adjust their pricing strategies, demonstrate real value to consumers.Retailers who failed to optimise margins effectively ultimatley struggled to maintain performance.

Lesson: Retailers must align pricing with real consumer demand rather than relying on outdated pricing models.

Brands That Extended Their Sales Periods Too Long

Black Friday used to be a one-day event. Now, it stretches from October through January, impacting retailer margins and long-term profitability. Natural Baby Shower experimented with exiting sales early in January, but saw sales drop sharply while competitors continued offering discounts.

Lesson: Retailers that failed to time their exit from promotions strategically ended up stuck in a cycle of low-margin transactions.

Businesses Overly Dependent on Google & Meta Ads

With rising ad costs and AI-driven changes to search, many retailers found their cost-per-acquisition skyrocketing.

The biggest winners of Black Friday? Google & Meta—not necessarily retailers.
Retailers relying solely on paid ads struggled with diminishing returns.
Brands that leveraged first-party data (customer email lists, loyalty programs) performed better.

Lesson: Retailers who diversified their marketing channels and focused on owned audiences fared better than those relying on expensive paid ads.

Key Strategies for Retail Success in 2025

Master Marketing Efficiency & First-Party Data

Reduce dependency on Google & Meta by focusing on organic and direct customer engagement

Use AI to analyse first-party customer data, ensuring better segmentation and personalisation

Invest in CRM and retention strategies rather than just chasing new customers

Do Fewer Things, But Execute Them Flawlessly

Prioritise profitability over revenue—not all sales are good sales

Streamline operations and improve efficiencies in pricing, supply chains, and inventory management

Speed up decision-making—react quickly to trends and optimise in real-time

Build Brand Trust & Customer Loyalty

The best retailers aren’t just competing on price—they’re winning on trust and service

Sustainability and ethical business practices will continue to be key differentiators

The rise of re-commerce (reselling & secondhand goods) could be a big opportunity in 2025

The Future of Retail in 2025

Peak 2024 showed that retailers who planned ahead, executed with precision, and focused on customer experience outperformed their competitors. The retailers who won weren’t just the ones who sold the most—they were the ones who maintained profitability, brand trust, and long-term customer value.

Watch the full webinar here

If you would like to discuss your Peak campaigns with our team, simply get in touch by sending us an email to team@modo25.com 

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